[PJUG Javamail] Is software engineering in the US dead?

Tue Sep 29 01:37:45 EDT 2009

Bleah, forgive the typos. Eyes are tired apparently. I even proof read it
and still missed it badly.

This is why I don't program at night :)

From: javamail-bounces at pjug.org [mailto:javamail-bounces at pjug.org] On Behalf
Of Chris Kessel/Lou Doherty
Sent: Monday, September 28, 2009 10:32 PM
To: javamail at pjug.org
Subject: Re: [PJUG Javamail] Is software engineering in the US dead?

I've seen a steady trend of outsourcing. Sadly, I really don't expect that
trend to end. Looks great on the books. "We have 1000 programmers, but only
60% the cost of an  equivalent organization!"  The host of inefficiencies in
coordinating off shore development is a silent cost that only those that
have to work directly with it ever see. Management simply sees how "lean"
they've made their R&D budget, but not the pain in the trenches. To see the
negatives they'd have to measure pre-outsourcing productivity with
post-outsourcing and compare a couple years of data to see what's really
going on. That's just not going to happen.

I can only speak fro person experience/observation, but it's mostly phantom
savings. You largely get what you pay for. The truly talented off shore
either join/form local companies and create a product (rather than work in
contract houses) or they move to the US or other countries that can pay
more. Consequently, the "cheap" outsourced engineers tend to not be the
cream of the crop and the few that are tend to turn over fairly quickly as
they get one of those higher paying jobs and you lose them.  Peopleware's
note about the best programmers being 10-100x more efficient than poor
programmers really kicks in. Combine that with Brooks law of communication
issues in larger teams and the benefits of outsourcing vanish rapidly.
Better to have 1 top notch local guy at 100k a year than 5 average remote
guys at 20k a year.

Also, well I've seen in at least one case, the outsourced work bills by the
hour, which means the engineers and QA have little incentive to automate
anything as it reduces the number of hours they can bill. I've also seen a
real lack of initiative to improve anything in the infrastructure (builds,
scripts, cron jobs, you name it) as anything that speeds up the process
reduces billable hours.

Unfortunately, the management folks that get don't know (or don't care)
about the lessons learned in things like Peopleware and Mythical Man-Month.
In fairness, they're given incentive goals like "reduce R&D to 12% of total
budget".  When that's your mandate, outsourcing looks awfully good.

>From a job security viewpoint, I suppose you could try to get into
government work related to defense or national security. Federal laws tend
to prohibit outsourcing those jobs due to security concerns.

From: javamail-bounces at pjug.org [mailto:javamail-bounces at pjug.org] On Behalf
Of steve.j.hall at tektronix.com
Sent: Monday, September 28, 2009 10:36 AM
To: javamail at pjug.org
Subject: [PJUG Javamail] Is software engineering in the US dead?

Is software engineering in the United States dead?

I am currently working in Java and Java EE creating and maintaining
applications that support global manufacturing and service.  I have been
with this company approaching 4 years.  I have recently been notified that
the manufacturing facility in which I work is being moved to China.
Accordingly, my current job will end sometime in 2010.  This is the second
company in a row that has notified me that my services will no longer be
necessary as they are moving this job function to over seas providers.  

I have contributed significantly to some great projects during my career.
However, looking back over the 11 years I have been involved in software it
seems to me my career has been anything but upwardly mobile.  In fact,
looking back it is evident that four organizations in the past ten years
have been filling a role, while planning on consolidating to another region
either within or outside the United States.  Naturally career growth and
upward mobility in such an organization is non existent.  

To provide a more complete picture, below is a summary of my background:

B.S. in Computer Science

Sun Certified Java Programmer

11 years in software development, 8 years focused on Java and Java EE.  I
work in all layers from the database to the user interface, full SDLC

Lots of other skills: team lead, team building, interviewing, management,
project management, and the like.

I have seen the resumes of the candidates we are hiring in China; the
resumes are generally peppered with the names of American corporations going
back at least 5 or 6 years.  I have had discussions with former colleagues
who have shared their experience when their employer has outsourced to
India.  In short, there is strong evidence of a shrinking industry here in
the United States.  None of this makes me mad, as I don't believe that I am
somehow more entitled to a job than someone in India or China is.  However,
it sure would be a lot easier to navigate the global economy if there was
some type of road map.

I am interested in PJUG member's opinions on whether software engineering as
a career direction in the US is still viable, or whether this is a dying
industry as software engineers cannot compete in a global economy?

I am also interested in opinions of where I should focus my efforts if I do
stay in software engineering: Additional certifications in the Java EE
platform; learn Spring and Hibernate, EJB3, something else?

Will a Masters Degree in software engineering be necessary to be viably
employed in this industry in the United States?  Would an MBA be a better
idea?  Should I give up and become a homeless bag man?

Please be candid, you will not hurt my feelings.

As a service to PJUG members, I will consolidate responses and post back to
the group unless the response specifically requests that I not do so.

Thanks in advance,

Steve Hall

stevejhall at verizon.net

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